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This simulation shows why you need to STAY@HOME whenever an infectious
disease outbreak occurs.
In the calculation all quantities are unitless. The following settings may be
used:
TIME: hour
DISTANCE: meter
The container size is 500x500
Color code: GREEN healthy;
RED ill; BLACK dead;
HAIRY infected; CIRCLED immune;
We take a number of noninteracting particles moving with random velocity inside a container. The illness level (health level) of every particles is recorded as a number between 0 to 100 which represents healthy to very sick condition. Every time a particle getting too close to another, its health level will decrease according to the condition of the other particle. A contact between two healthy particles will not change the health conditions. The distance that may infect a healthy particle is defined by the expossure distance.
Once a particle recovers it will be immune to the disease. Hence, it will not be a carrier nor get re-infected. When the illness condition exceeds the maximum value, a particle will be considered as dead and immutable.
There is a chance that an ill particle become healthier (defined by the cure-probability), however, once a particle become infected, the condition will be worsened as a function of time. The rate of change of the health condition is defined by the infection growth time --the time required to reach the maximum illness value-- and the health worsening probability. After a particle passes the incubation time, it recovers to a healthy status with rate defined by the recovery time.
| name | meaning |
|---|---|
| population number | the number of particles (density inverse) |
| initial infected | the number of initially infected particles |
| health worsening probability | the probability that a particle health level decreases |
| cure probability | the probability that a particle can recover |
| infection growth time | the time that the change of health level evaluated |
| incubation time | the time of virus incubation inside a particle. The infection time is included in this parameter. |
| recovery time | the time needed to recover and become immune after passing incubation time |
| expossure radius | the distance limit that a particle can infect other particle |
This simulation does not use any measurement units. So the data can be interpretated as is.
| name | meaning |
|---|---|
| time | elapsed simulation time |
| infected | the number of active infected particles (active case) |
| uninfected | the number of uninfected and susceptible particles |
| immune | the number of healing particles and became immune |
| death | the number of dead particles |
| R0 | the R-nought parameter, measured as the average number of infections caused by one particle |
| infected level | the cummulative value of illness condition of all
particles devided by the total number of particles. The illness level of a particle ranges from 0 to 100 representing healthy and very ill condition |